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Episode 652: Revenue, Run Differential, and Ways to Win Now
Date April 8, 2015 Summary Ben and Sam banter about Doug Melvin’s extension talks and then answer listener emails about run differential, the players’ portion of revenue, Kris Bryant, and more. Topics * Using run differential to decide standings * Adding wins without changing the roster * Declining player portion of revenue * MLB Players Association * Negative win probability streaks * Kris Bryant demotion and possible extension Intro Julian Lennon, "Well I Don't Know" Outro Episode outtake sound clip Banter * A listener wrote in that they, after 100 episodes, are just now able to tell Sam and Ben's voices apart. * It was announced that Doug Melvin will be able to decide on the length of his extension with the Brewers. * Sam review the lengths of each game that has finished that day prior to recording. Email Questions * Isaac (Montreal, Canada): "I am watching Tanaka get lit up and now the Yankees have brought in a reliever in the fifth who is no good. In games like these that turn into blowouts teams will often throw out guys who aren't great anyways. This makes me wonder about how arbitrary 9 innings per game is. What if, instead of having the standings be wins and losses, the standings were a reflection of run differential? By doing this each pitch would matter equally. A 9-0 win would be more valued than a 1-0 win, and games would never truly be over since each at-bat would count for something." * Brett: "If you owned a very good team and felt compelled to go all-in this season, but had already signed every free agent who was willing to join your team, and had picked up every overpriced player that other teams were willing to trade, what would be the best way to pick up some extra wins?" * Tom: "A lot has been made of the declining share of revenue taken home by players. I have a theory that I've not seen discussed much and was wondering if that lack of discussion is because I am missing something obvious. In recent years the aging curve for players has shifted forward, with players peaking earlier. The most valuable assets are the ones with the least bargaining power and the players who do have more bargaining power are less valuable then they were 10 years ago. Could this explain why salary inflation has not kept up with increased baseball revenues? Is there anything the players could do realistically? Is there something I am totally missing?" * Lee: "The Kris Bryant demotion has been covered to high heaven but I was talking with a buddy the other day and he posited the following: wouldn't it improve the Cubs' chances of locking Bryant up long term if they had shown good will and promoted him for opening day? If he's anywhere near as good as advertised there's no way he makes it to arbitration, right? Maybe I'm overlooking something obvious but it seems as though this may possibly come back to bite the club when they start discussing the inevitable the Longoria/Trout-esque pre-arb contract extension." Play Index * Sam looks up a variety of statistics related to players with negative WPA for a game or streak. * Jarrod Saltalamacchia had a -0.38 WPA in the first game of the season, the 16th worst opening day in history. * Mike Rivera has the longest streak of negative WPA games to start a season. In 2003 he had a negative WPA in the season's first 15 games. After a 0 WPA in game 16, he had three more negative WPA games. He did not play again that season. Notes * Sam, on the recording quality of the podcast, "One of us is like an HBO prestige drama and the other one of us is like a Preston Sturges film." * Ben and Sam think that if run differential were used to decide the standings it would eliminate the concept of leverage, and teams would just use their best pitchers from the start of each game. * In the early years of baseball the bottom of the 9th was played even if the home team was winning. It wasn't until 1950 that the home team was required to bat last (previously had been an option to bat first). * Ben and Sam suggest stealing signs, overworking pitchers, hiring other team's scouting staff, or paying opponents to retire as ways to improve a team's chances of winning without adding new players to their roster. * Sam thinks it is in the best interests of players to have a more even distribution of revenue among players. Links * Effectively Wild Episode 652: Revenue, Run Differential, and Ways to Win Now * Does Arbitration Drive Players Away? by Ben Lindbergh Category:Episodes Category:Email Episodes